Pre-Launch vs. Ready-to-Move: IRR Comparison for 3 Upcoming Chembur Projects
Chembur’s skyline is at an inflection point, three large projects with a combined 2.1 million sq ft of saleable area are either launching or handing over keys between now and 2027. If you have ₹1 crore to deploy, should you lock in today’s pre-launch price or pay the premium for a ready-to-move flat? We ran a discounted cash-flow model (cost of capital: 9 %, exit cap: 6 %) on the three most-discussed schemes. Here is the unfiltered math.
Project Snapshot
|
Project |
Status |
Launch Price (₹/sq ft) |
Possession |
Developer |
Location |
|
A |
Pre-Launch |
17,000 |
Q4-2027 |
Mahavir Universal |
Mahul Road |
|
B |
Under-Construction (70 %) |
19,500 |
Q2-2026 |
Lodha |
Chembur East |
|
C |
Ready OC (May 2024) |
22,500 |
Immediate |
Dosti Group |
Diamond Garden |
Assumptions Used
- Unit size: 700 sq ft carpet, 2-BHK across all three.
- Rental yield starts at handover; escalation 5 % p.a.
- Exit sale at Year 5 post-handover; resale price growth 7 % p.a.
IRR Results
|
Scenario |
Total Out-go |
Exit Value Year 5 |
Net Rental (5 yrs) |
IRR |
|
Project A (Pre-Launch) |
₹1.19 Cr |
₹1.73 Cr |
₹6.2 L |
18.1 % |
|
Project B (Under Construction.) |
₹1.37 Cr |
₹1.73 Cr |
₹5.5 L |
14.4 % |
|
Project C (Ready OC) |
₹1.58 Cr |
₹1.73 Cr |
₹4.8 L |
11.2 % |
Risk-Adjusted Commentary
Pre-Launch (Project A)
- Maximum upside but maximum risk: OC delays, cost overruns, Metro 2B slippage.
- Break-even delay tolerance: 14 months—if possession slips beyond Q1-2028, IRR drops below 12 %.
- Sweetener: Developer offering ₹300/sq ft discount for 30 % upfront payment.
Under Construction (Project B)
- Lower delay risk—70 % physical progress certified by RERA; only fit-outs left.
- Exit liquidity starts sooner; you can list for rent in Q3-2026 while Project A investors are still waiting.
- Hidden cost: ₹75 k for floor-rise premium if you pick 12th floor or higher.
Ready-to-Move (Project C)
- Instant cash-flow: Tenant in place at ₹34 k/month from day 30.
- Lower IRR because the purchase premium is already baked in.
- Perfect for NRIs or retirees who want to park money and forget about it.
Sensitivity on Exit Price
If resale growth slows to 5 % instead of 7 %:
- Project A IRR falls to 15.8 % (still healthy)
- Project C IRR collapses to 8.9 % (below risk-free bonds)
Investor Playbook
- Growth Investor – Choose Project A; hedge with staggered payment plan (10-20-20-50).
- Balanced Investor – Project B offers 14 % IRR with moderate risk; negotiate floor-rise waiver for 7th-9th floors.
- Income Investor – Project C for 11 % IRR plus peace of mind; refinance loan after six months once rental starts.